tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34993014.post8716669640310981570..comments2024-01-13T10:12:47.756+00:00Comments on Ranting Stan: IPCC sea level rise claim is "a fraud"Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34993014.post-90615957999889987132007-07-13T13:37:00.000+01:002007-07-13T13:37:00.000+01:00Possibly tangential but here goes:The IPCC has eve...Possibly tangential but here goes:<BR/><BR/>The IPCC has everything backwards. Proper scientific modelling is as follows:<BR/><BR/>1. Measure data, carefully and with minimum bias.<BR/><BR/>2. Construct a model you think will describe the problem domain.<BR/><BR/>3. Run the model and check it's predictions against the measurements.<BR/><BR/>4. Ensure independent reproducibility of data and model.<BR/><BR/>The IPCC method of modelling:<BR/><BR/>1. Select a conclusion that will ensure your continued ride on the gravy train. This conclusion will typically be handed down to you by your paymasters, the politicians.<BR/><BR/>2. Construct a model based on suitable assumptions that will support the conclusion.<BR/><BR/>3. Run the model.<BR/><BR/>4. Selectively choose data that matches the results<BR/><BR/>OR<BR/><BR/>5. Falsify data when you can't find any that matches the results.<BR/><BR/>OR<BR/><BR/>6. Sensationally declare it's worse than you thought when data is different from the predictions.<BR/><BR/><BR/>The clue is in the name. It's a model, a representation (indeed an approximation) of the real thing. The real thing is the data.<BR/><BR/>If the model doesn't match the data then the model isn't "too conservative" it is WRONG. Predictions based on a model that is wrong are therefore inevitably WRONG.<BR/><BR/>Where policy is based on wrong predictions from wrong models we have our current situation which has little to do with correct scientific method and everything to do with keeping a population in fear.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34993014.post-40643509858035349352007-06-29T17:26:00.000+01:002007-06-29T17:26:00.000+01:00OT but:Petition demanding a referendum on the EU c...OT but:<BR/><BR/>Petition demanding a referendum on the EU constitution ("amending treaty", so called)<BR/> <BR/>http://petitions.pm.gov.uk/EU-Constituion/Sir Henry Morganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07414086555889687483noreply@blogger.com