Monday, June 30, 2008

Sense and sensitivity

A couple of things on global warming caught my eye this morning that seem to link together well. They both relate to the issue of climate sensitivity and the importance of feedback mechanisms - positive and negative.

The first comes via The Reference Frame and it is a short 10 minute video which summarises in simple to understand terms what is meant by climate sensitivity, positive and negative feedback, tipping points and why the IPCC are completely wrong in their model driven guesstimates. There is a longer video posted which I haven't yet watched (but will when I find an hour or so to spare).

The second comes from Roy Spencer and also explains in simple terms what the various terms mean, but adds something extra by claiming that he has discovered the "holy grail" of climate sensitivity - and it is uncomfortable reading for a Canutist.

The prediction of how much manmade global warming we will see in the future (as well as how much past warming was manmade) depends upon something called "climate sensitivity". For many years, climate researchers have struggled to diagnose the Earth's climate sensitivity from measurements of the real climate system. It's almost a "holy grail" kind of search, because if we could discover the true value of the climate sensitivity, then we would basically know whether future global warming will be benign, catastrophic, or somewhere in between.

They are both well presented and relatively easy to follow. The video makes a good intro to Roy Spencer's article so I'd recommend watching that first.


Guardian apostate said...

Stan, any chance of cross posting this on ATW. It would be interesting to see Frank and Peter's response to this.

Stan said...

If I could remember my password to ATW I would, GA.