Monday, November 03, 2008

The (Little) Ice Age Cometh

As I'm sure you are all well aware by now, I'm not convinced that relatively small increases in an essential trace gas caused by mans activity on this earth are responsible for making the planet warmer. Actually, I find it completely and utterly implausible. What is more, despite many claims by warmists to the contrary, there is no evidence whatsoever that warming is caused by mans activities. None at all.

The only "evidence" they have comes from computer models and, as most of us realise, the general rule of computers is garbage in, garbage out. Other evidence they point to, such as the melting Arctic icepack and retreating glaciers, is not proven to be man-made. The Arctic icepack and the glaciers have melted and retreated many times in the past all through entirely natural causes.

What we are seeing from the alarmists is an inversion of the "null hypothesis" - the belief that what is happening is normal unless proven otherwise. Instead the alarmists are declaring that everything is caused by man unless proven otherwise - a complete reversal of the usual scientific methodology. Thus the retreating glaciers are "evidence" of man-made climate change even though they have retreated many times in the past through natural causes.

The simple fact is that there isn't any real world evidence, anywhere that the warming of the last 30 years has been caused by man - or even that it is set to continue. If anything, the evidence increasingly points to natural causes and suggests that the warming of the last century is over and we are now entering another, natural, cycle of cooling. Even the alarmists are starting to accept that this is the case - although they claim it is merely a brief pause in the unstoppable global warming caused by man.

I don't believe it is. I believe we are entering a period of cooling that will see the return of freezing winters to Britain similar to those endured during the Little Ice Age - the very period of intense cold the emergence from which is the reason for the warming of the last century (and wholly beneficial it was too!).

I don't think we can stop this period of colder climate arriving, nor do I think it makes sense to even try - any more than it makes sense to try and stop the warming which, in my opinion, was entirely natural. What I do believe we should do is ensure that Britain has sufficient, efficient, affordable and reliable power supply to get us through a new Little Ice Age.

The first October snowfalls in London for more than seventy years is the final warning we are going to get from the weather. It was a mercifully brief cold spell, but it is, I believe, a precursor of what is to come this winter. And with prolonged cold spells will come a demand for power which will place such strains on our energy supply system that a collapse is inevitable.

Our government is unprepared for this. Worse still, even as the climate cools and our energy industry lies on the brink of collapse our government are looking to introduce a bill that would not only leave our economy in ruins, but would ensure that thousands of people will die needlessly from the cold.

The sole MP who tried to raise the matter of the cost of the Bill - which could run to trillions of pounds if all its measures were implemented - was Mr Lilley. He was ruled out of order by the Speaker.

Remember that this winter, when the lights are out again, there is no heating and no power to cook a hot meal. Remember what it is that our elected representatives are doing.

The state of many of our power stations is already so parlous that, if this winter continues as cold as it has begun, we can expect major power cuts within months.

We're not even in winter yet - this is still the autumn; many of the trees still have leaves on them, but Scotland is enjoying an early start to its ski season with the prospect of a "bumper" year for Scottish winter sports. That may be good news for Scottish ski resorts, but it is not good news for the rest of us - especially the old and infirm.

Get yourself a good winter coat, plenty of warm socks and stock up on tins of food that you can warm up on a Calor gas ring - you're going to need them.

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