Thursday, May 21, 2009

Garbage in, garbage out

The Telegraph reports that a new "study" predicts global temperatures rise by 7C by the end of this century killing billions.

The study, carried out in unprecedented detail, projected that without "rapid and massive action" temperatures worldwide will increase by as much as 7.4C (13.3F) by 2100, from levels seen in 2000.

Scary stuff, eh? Except that the "study" is actually just another computer simulation.

The results are based on 400 trials of the new system, each time using slightly different variations in data at the start to try and iron out errors.

Hmmm, I wonder if any of these "trials" started at a baseline of - say - 1940 and projected to 1980 and when man made CO2 output was at its peak but temperatures declined? How do they know that their projections are accurate when we have no knowledge of what the climate will actually be in 2100?

No doubt the alarmists will cite this as "evidence" of dangerous man-made global warming.

Friends of the Earth climate campaigner Tom Picken said that if the new research by MIT is accurate the results for the planet would be catastrophic.

Oh, they have. Well. Mr Picken - when you have proven that they are accurate, come back and tell us. See you in a hundred years. Meanwhile, the sun continues to doze, the earth continues to cool, the Arctic ice refuses to go away and the Antarctic ice continues to expand.

All of which the computer models failed completely to predict - sorry, "project".

Does anyone still take these people seriously?



JuliaM said...

"All of which the computer models failed completely to predict - sorry, "project"."

Even worse. When they collect data to prove their theory and the data singularly fails to go the way they want it, then the data collectors must be wrong.

It can't be the theory, can it? Oh, dear me no...

Letters From A Tory said...

Another piece of news to happily ignore.