EU elections prove nothing

As expected the media have gone into a frenzy over Labour's dismal performance in the EU elections with many people suggesting that this could translate into a whitewash in a General Election. I'm still not convinced.

First of all, the "constituencies" and the method of voting in these elections are nothing like those at a General Election meaning that it is all but impossible to draw comparisons. As a rule, the Tories tend to do well in larger, more rural constituencies while Labour tend to dominate in large towns and cities. The only real place where you could make some sort of judgement is in London where the Labour vote held up surprisingly well all things considered.

Secondly, despite the Labour Party vote share collapsing, it was clear that the Tories were not the beneficiaries of defecting Labour voters - and nor were UKIP. It's true that UKIP tended to pick up seats that Labour lost, but on the whole it appears to me that the biggest beneficiaries of Labour disaffection were the Greens and BNP.

If anything, the results are as much of a body blow to Cameron as they were to Brown. There is no indication from these polls that the Tories will achieve anything near the required swing to gain even a modest majority in parliament - and if they want a working majority they are even further from the mark.

What is also clear to me from this is that it is highly unlikely now that the Labour party would ditch Brown. They could not possibly have a new leader and not hold an immediate General Election. I really believe there would be widespread revolt if they tried - and even if there wasn't, people would be so infuriated by such disregard for the electoral process that they'd give Labour an even bigger kicking when the election did come.

I suspect a lot of people will look at the way UKIPs vote held up and judge that these voters would normally vote Conservative in a General Election giving the Tories more than enough to achieve the required swing. Possibly, but the vote share of both groups is roughly the same as it was in the previous EU elections and that wasn't enough to defeat Labour in 2005.

I've no doubt that there is some serious soul searching going on at Labour HQ today, but if I was Cameron I'd be even more concerned and wondering what it is I need to do to convince voters to support the Tories - because on this showing the best he can hope for is a hung parliament.