Friday, May 02, 2008

Expect the unexpected

It was Oscar Wilde who said "to expect the unexpected shows a thoroughly modern intellect". I'm not sure in what context he meant that, but it is certainly true that claiming to have expected the unexpected is the mark of thoroughly modern political spin machine.

The climate alarmists have been quick to crank up their propaganda generation  with the recent news that "global warming" is going to pause for the next 10 or 20 years (on top of the 10 years of gradual cooling we've already had). They are trying to suggest it is "expected" - except their models didn't expect it, the IPCC didn't say they "expected it" and the only people who did "expect" it are the people who are often labelled "deniers".

The alarmist are saying yes, because of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) shift to a negative cycle,  it will cool for the next decade or two, but it will start to warm up again. I bloody well hope so! The alternative to "warming up" is getting colder and I for one don't fancy much of that, thank you very much. But as I said, the trouble with this "cooling phase" is that it wasn't supposed to happen. Man's CO2 emissions are rising faster than ever so - if the majority of warming is due to man's emissions then ANY natural cooling would not be enough to stop that.

If, as the IPCC and others claim, warming is caused by man, then only man could stop it and that has been the premise behind their reports and propaganda for the last 15-20 years. That is what Gore said, what Stern said and what Hansen said. Only man can stop the world warming. They have been proven wrong.

Only if the bulk of warming is due to natural cycles could a change in those natural cycles impact a temperature trend. If man is responsible for, say, 60% of the warming then any change in natural cycles could only reduce warming by 40% - not stop it and certainly not reverse it. Yes, I know it's not as simple as that, but hey, if the IPCC, Gore and other alarmists can play the oversimplification game then so can I!

It's also worth noting that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has also switched to a negative cycle - which is also likely to result in a "cooling phase" with more La Nina (cooling) events and fewer El Nino (warming) events. We could be in for some grim years on the west coast of the USA so if you're into Californian wine - stock up now!

And if, as some predict, solar cycle 24 turns out to be rather weak then that could exacerbate the cooling further. White Christmas anyone? Some are suggesting that we could even be entering an era of a new solar minimum - possibly on a par with the Dalton minimum. That would see a return to temperatures of the Little Ice Age - a period which we have spent the last 150 years recovering from (which is why we had warming in the first place!!). Thousands of folk will die every winter, but at least we'll be able to skate on the Thames again!

Just bear all this in mind when we're shivering in our homes due to a lack of power and hundreds of thousands of people are dying each winter. The alarmists will tell you not to worry - this was entirely expected and it is still necessary for us to curb our CO2 emissions if we're to avoid the real catastrophe  - so stop burning your furniture!

It is a lie - they did not expect it, their useless models didn't predict it and they did not plan for it. Their spin machine has already kicked into a higher gear so you can expect to see many many more reports and "studies" claiming that this is entirely "expected".

Don't be fooled.


Otter said...


I know the PDO shifted over, but last I heard the AMO had not yet shifted, has that changed?

Agreed that these.... people.... will hang onto agw no matter what. But 10-20 years of cool summers (hopefully no worse), COLD winters, devastated crops and millions starving to death, is likely going to relegate them to the club containing mezmerism and phrenology.

Keep your fingers crossed.... otherwise they are going to make our lives Hell, on top of the cold.

Stan said...

I didn't know the AMO had shifted either, but that was the thrust of this latest propaganda puff ...

There is too much money and too many people with too much invested in AGW for them to give up without a fight. AGW is not about science after all - it's political and always has been. What is required is for the mass of people - particularly in the developed world - to hold those people and political institutions who have perpetrated this enormous swindle to account. People like Gore, institutions like the UN and EU.

Once this myth has been exposed for what it is - as it will be - it is not enough for them to be allowed to continue as if nothing happened. Particularly the UN. We must ensure that never again can we allow a single political organisation to exercise such control and manipulation of the science.

Science MUST always be free from political interference and pressure - the behaviour of the UN with its manipulation of the science through the pseudo-scientific body of the IPCC is no different to the way the Nazis and Stalin behaved in using "science" to justify their political positions.