Benedict Brogan has an interesting comment piece in today's Telegraph suggesting that more than half of the current batch of Tory MPs may not be around after the next election.
[T]hose around the leader are talking about possibly 100 of their 193 MPs being replaced. No wonder, then, that the Conservative backbenches are seething. It is dawning on them that they are being culled, whether by the leadership or the public, and they do not know what to do.
It's worth noting that the "cull" has very little to do with the expenses scandal and a lot to do with Cameron getting rid of the kind of conservative Conservative that no longer fits the profile of the New Tory Party.
There is resentment at the way Mr Cameron operates. He is too aloof, some MPs say, and relies on a small inner circle for advice, leaving the rest to stew.
Hmmm - sound familiar? I seem to recall similar accusations against a certain Anthony Blair.
Some MPs also reveal a deeper unease about the party's direction. "But what do we believe?" they ask, reluctant to consider that the consistent double-digit leads in the polls are for real or that the public has taken to Mr Cameron as a prime minister-in-waiting.
What do they believe? The New Tory Party believes in power - nothing else. There is no "direction" other than attaining power. The last thing the New Tory Party wants to do is confuse voters who provide that "double-digit lead" with things like policy and direction. Nope - just stick to vague and grandiose sound bites. It worked for Obama!
While we're on the subject of polls - a double-digit lead is meaningless. The Lib Dems have a double-digit lead over UKIP but are no more likely to win the next election! To actually achieve a large enough swing the Tories need to be looking at at least 50% in the polls to have a realistic chance of winning a decent majority in parliament - and they are not even close to that.
But supposing they do and they end up winning a landslide with some 400 or so Conservative MPs. More than three quarters of those MPs will be complete novices while most of the rest will have never served in government. Their leader is a novice himself having never had a significant position in government before. The Cabinet will be stuffed full of New Tory MPs with little idea of what is required and even less idea about how to go about achieving that.
And all this at a time when Britain is facing an unparalleled economic and political crisis.
This does not bode well for the New Tory Party - but it is even worse for Britain with the country in the hands of absolute beginners.