Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Complacent thinking

There's a decent article on the AGW campaign at The American Thinker from a J.R. Dunn. Dunn effectively pokes fun at the incompetence of the environmentalists campaign to convince the world that the earth is going to die and it's all our fault - incompetence such as scheduling the release of their crucial warming warning during February which, in the northern hemisphere at least, tends to be just about the coldest month of the year.

The IPCC report was released during the first days of the worst six weeks of weather in several decades. While the UN, Al [Gore], and the media jabbered about how hot it was getting, the rest of the northern hemisphere was digging out of blizzards, enduring colder temperatures than any in recent memory (this was the worst run of continuous low temperatures I have seen personally since the infamous "ice age winter" of 1975), and in some cases simply trying to live through it. Europe was hit by killer blizzards, one of which shut down all of southeastern England. Japan, China, and Korea suffered bone-chilling readings. Cambodia was treated to temperatures of an unthinkable 40 degrees Fahrenheit, prompting the distribution of blankets to the poor. The central and northern U.S. went through weeks of below-freezing temperatures, (two and half weeks here in western PA), with much of the rest of the country enduring less than normal levels. Excessive snow, often reaching blizzard heights, added to everyone's pleasure.

It's quite an amusing article, but it's also a little bit complacent. Dunn seems to think - at least I get the impression - that the sheer incompetence of the campaign, combined with the hypocritical musings of Al Gore and the increasing weight of science that challenges the AGW "consensus" has effectively knocked the stuffing out of their argument and ended the threat - if not the campaign.

The campaign will continue. We'll be hearing about global warming until the glaciers return, the same way we occasionally still hear a few frightened voices crying about overpopulation, in a world where population collapse is the challenge. The Greens may pass some taxes, get some cosmetic programs pushed through, but the idea of a Green millennium, of some kind of apocalyptic phase-change resulting in a global environmentalist state, is something we can forget about.

They had their shot, and they have blown it. The past few weeks could serve well as a textbook example of how not to influence public opinion. In time (and it can't be soon enough), global warming will take its place in the museum of folly alongside overpopulation, nuclear winter, and the coming ice age. There aren't any spotlights there, and they don't give out prizes either.

For me, this is complacent and possibly even dangerous thinking from the American Thinker. Exposing the sham politics of Gore is all very well and highly amusing, but Dunn is very wrong if he thinks this is all over. It has barely begun. The AGW movement is a massive bandwagon with huge momentum and fuelled by copious funding. Even as new science and new reports hint that climate change is almost certainly entirely natural we have more and more politicians and governments leaping onto the AGW bandwagon - all of which helps to build the momentum further.

Mr Dunn may think it's "job done" in stopping the AGW bandwagon steamrollering us towards a potentially truly catastrophic human disaster, but I am far from convinced myself. Over the last couple of months there have been a number of minor skirmishes won and an even one or two significant battles, but the war is a long way from being won. The AGW crowd will regroup, reorganise and come back with all guns blazing. They have demonstrated that they are prepared to propagandise, lie and cheat with their "science" and they have proven that they are prepared to cajole, coerce and bully others to agreement or silence. They aren't going to stop now.

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